Making Confident Decisions with Model Ensembles

Making Decisions with Belief Functions

A primary motivation for reasoning under uncertainty is to derive decisions in the face of inconclusive evi­ dence. However, Shafer's theory of belief functions, which explicitly represents the underconstrained na­ ture of many reasoning problems, lacks a formal pro­ cedure for making decisions. Clearly, when sufficient information is not available, no theory can prescribe actions without makin...

Evolutionary Optimization of Regression Model Ensembles in Steel-Making Process

In this paper we compare different evolutionary algorithm approaches and parameters used to optimize the output of neural network committee trained on regression problems. This is especially useful for large and complex datasets. We used the methodology presented in this paper to optimize the output of the committee to predict the temperature in the electric arc furnace in one of the steelworks.

Title: Making Decisions with a Continuous Mind

Making Decisions with Unknown Sensory Reliability

To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides ...

Making Good Decisions Quickly

Several disciplines, including artificial intelligence, operations research and many others, study how to make good decisions. In this overview article, we argue that the key to making progress in our research area is to combine their ideas, which often requires serious technical advances to reconcile their different assumptions and methods in a way that results in synergy among them. To illust...